Airplanes in 2027 will be more productive. Each will carry about 40 percent more traffic (RPKs) than the average airplane today. Fewer airplanes will be needed to accommodate the same volume of travel. So the fleet needs to grow by only 3.2 percent each year, although travel will grow at 5.0 percent.
Longer Distances
The average growth in airline passenger numbers will be around 4.0 percent each year. More people will be traveling by air as economies grow. Markets will open up through reduced regulation and increased competition. As markets expand, new travel opportunities will mostly be on longer distance flights.
The air transport fleet plays a fundamental role in stimulating and sustaining economic activity. This tie-in is clear, with the 3.2 percent annual fleet growth in line with expected long-term economic growth of 3.2 percent.
Using the Right Airplanes
As airlines seek better financial returns, they match the airplanes used more closely to the precise economics of the routes they fly. This means that airlines will in general use larger regional jets and single-aisle airplanes, and more small- and medium-sized twin-aisle airplanes. The chart shows how this shift toward the middle of the market will look.
A natural product of this improved operational efficiency is that the average airplane has a lower environmental impact. In the year 2027, 82 percent of the fleet will be airplanes that do not exist today. They all will have been delivered new and will be better than today's fleet in every respect. More environmentally progressive. Better for passengers. And better for airlines.
