Demonstrated resilience
The incredible resilience of air transport is reflected in the forecasts we have published over the past 45 years. During this time, the industry experienced several economic downturns. Even so, because of the intrinsic value of air transport to society, air travel grew by an average of around 5 percent per year over the past 20 years. During the next 20 years, there will be periods of recovery and again some setbacks along the way. However, we expect that the continued dependence of people and businesses around the world on timely, reliable and efficient air transport will result in a similar growth trend.
Market challenges
Boeing continually monitors traffic patterns around the world, and when we look back at this data, history shows periodic times of challenging traffic levels. We also monitor airline cost, revenue and operational strategies and data so that we have the fullest possible understanding of how markets are developing and how we can best support our airline customers to achieve their goals.
Following each downturn, we have repeatedly seen airline growth rates rise above average for a period, leading to peak traffic levels above those suggested by the long-term trend. The future airline fleet needs to be numerous enough to accommodate these peaks in demand and flexible enough for airlines to adjust or relocate capacity to meet changing demand conditions.
Service improvements
As airlines grow, they mostly do so in ways that respond to their customers' preference for more choice, lower fares and direct access to a wider range of destinations. New, more capable and more economical airplane types enable access to a wider range of routes. A small proportion of growth is through the use of larger airplanes on existing services.
Demand is also stimulated as regulations governing market access are lifted. This phenomenon is well established in many regions and continues to spread into the fast-growing regions of Latin America, Russia, Africa and Asia Pacific. As international travel regulations allow more direct flights, demand on the most densely traveled routes tends to dissipate into services that reach the travelers' true local destination, thereby reducing the need for the very largest airplanes.
