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World Air Cargo Forecast

2026-2045

Sustained air cargo demand fuels global freighter fleet growth

Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast (WACF) is a biennial supplement to the Commercial Market Outlook, focused on a comprehensive and long-term view of the air cargo market. The forecast offers in-depth analysis of global air trade markets including trends, regional market developments and the world’s freighter fleet needs over the next 20 years.

Boeing’s World Air Cargo Forecast by the numbers:

  • 3.5% Annual air cargo traffic growth
  • 2.0 times Global air cargo traffic in 2045 compared with 2025
  • 4,010 Global freighter fleet in 2045
  • 2.6% Annual freighter fleet growth
  • 2,930 New and converted freighter deliveries
  • More than 50% Dedicated freighter share of global air cargo traffic in 2045
  • 25% Integrator share of global air cargo traffic in 2045

Discover more about the forecast below.

World Air Cargo Forecast – Q&A

  • The air cargo industry set a new annual traffic record in 2025, with global demand growing nearly 5% year over year despite trade volatility and geopolitical disruptions.
  • Air cargo networks are adapting to changing trade flows, rerouting challenges and shifting production locations while continuing to provide speed, reliability and security.
  • Global air cargo traffic measured in cargo tonne-kilometers is forecast to grow 3.5% annually from 2026 to 2045, doubling compared with 2025 levels.
  • Integrators supporting time-definite and express shipments are expected to grow faster than the overall market, increasing their share of global air cargo traffic to nearly 25% by 2045.
  • Economic fundamentals are the foundation for global air cargo demand. Global real GDP is expected to increase 2.6% annually over the next 20 years, while global trade and industrial production are projected to grow 2.4% and 2.1% annually, respectively.
  • Structural market factors including supply chain diversification, e-commerce growth and AI-driven technology demand are reshaping air cargo flows and supporting demand for dedicated freighters.
  • Freighters provide network flexibility, efficiency and specialized capability for cargo that may not be served by passenger networks, including hazardous, outsized, high-value and time-sensitive shipments.
  • Dedicated freighters are expected to continue carrying more than half of global air cargo traffic, supporting the need for both new-production and converted aircraft.
  • The rise of direct-to-consumer business and emergence of new e-commerce companies and business models continue to accelerate air cargo and express growth.
  • E-commerce will continue to increase demand for fast, reliable and time-definite transportation, particularly in South Asia, Southeast Asia and Latin America.
  • Intra-East Asia and Oceania and domestic India are expected to be among the fastest-growing markets as online retail, digital connectivity and distribution networks expand.
  • Investment in artificial intelligence is generating demand for semiconductors, computing equipment and communications hardware, much of which requires reliable and time-sensitive transportation.
  • More than 70% of AI-related goods were transported by air in 2025, according to IATA.
  • AI-related manufacturing and data-center investment are increasing demand on major flows, including East Asia–North America and East Asia–Europe, as well as within East Asia and Oceania.
  • Geopolitical uncertainty and evolving trade policies are encouraging companies to diversify manufacturing and sourcing across multiple locations.
  • China accounted for more than two-thirds of U.S. air import volumes from East Asia in 2017, but slightly more than one-third in 2025, while Northeast and Southeast Asia together grew to nearly two-thirds.
  • The East Asia–North America market, the world’s largest air cargo flow, is forecast to nearly double by 2045.
  • South Asia–East Asia is expected to be the fastest-growing international market, with traffic projected to increase 3.2 times by 2045.

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