2024 Commercial Market Outlook is in

Boeing’s  2024 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) predicts air travel demand will outpace economic growth through 2043, with emerging markets and global single-aisle demand remaining the primary growth drivers for the industry.

The company released its annual 20-year industry look ahead leading into the Farnborough International Airshow.

“This is a challenging and inspiring era for aviation. The return to more typical traffic growth shows how resilient our industry is, even as we all work through ongoing supply chain and production constraints amid other global challenges,” said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of Commercial Sales and Marketing.

CMO forecast highlights through 2043:

• The global commercial fleet is projected to grow 3.2% annually, more slowly than air traffic, as airlines continue to boost productivity by increasing load factors and using airplanes more hours per day.
• The air cargo fleet, with speed and reliability, consistently outperforms other modes of transport and will increase by two-thirds over the next 20 years, to support 4.1% annual air cargo traffic growth.

Key growth drivers:

• South Asia passenger traffic will increase 7.4%, followed by Southeast Asia (7.2%) and Africa (6.4%), as emerging markets return to historical growth trends through the forecast period.
• Eurasia is projected to lead all markets with the most airplane deliveries (22% of total) with North America (20%) and China (20%) close behind.
• Single-aisle airplanes will make up 71% of the 2043 fleet after 33,380 new deliveries, serving short- to medium-haul routes with versatility.
• The global widebody fleet will more than double, with twin-aisles comprising 44% of the Middle East fleet.

Services on the rise:

• Boeing expects demand for commercial services valued at $4.4 trillion ─ driven by maintenance and modification options and digital solutions that increase efficiency.
• With air travel expansion especially in emerging markets, the commercial aviation industry will require nearly 2.4 million new personnel as well as training to support new pilots, maintenance technicians and cabin crew.

Boeing has published the CMO annually since 1961. As the longest-running forecast of its kind, the CMO is regarded as the most comprehensive analysis of the commercial aviation industry.

Go deeper: boeing.com/cmo